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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.