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Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.