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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a much more significant shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.